The Predictive Model Framer

Help me frame a predictive model for this business problem before building
anything.

What I want to predict: [DESCRIBE — E.G. WHICH CUSTOMERS WILL CHURN]
Why and what I'd do with the prediction: [DESCRIBE THE ACTION]
Data available: [DESCRIBE]

Provide:
1. Whether prediction is even the right tool (vs a simple rule or an
   experiment)
2. The target variable and how to define it cleanly
3. The features likely to matter and the ones that would leak the answer
4. How to evaluate the model against the decision (the right metric, not
   just accuracy)
5. The risks (bias, drift, acting on spurious patterns) and how the
   model creates value only if the action changes

Keep me honest that a model is only useful if it changes a decision — name
the decision.