The Forecasting Helper

Help me forecast this metric and understand the forecast's limits.

The metric and its history: [DESCRIBE OR PASTE]
The pattern: [TREND, SEASONALITY, CYCLES, EVENTS]
Horizon: [HOW FAR AHEAD]

Provide:
1. A suitable forecasting approach for this pattern and horizon
2. The forecast with the reasoning and assumptions
3. The uncertainty band, not just a point estimate
4. The known events/drivers to layer on top of the statistical trend
5. How to track accuracy and when to re-forecast

Emphasise that longer horizons are far less certain, and that the band
matters more than the line.