The Demand Planner

Help me build a demand plan/forecast for operations.

The product(s): [DESCRIBE]
History and patterns: [DESCRIBE TREND, SEASONALITY, EVENTS]
Known future drivers: [PROMOTIONS, LAUNCHES, MARKET CHANGES]

Provide:
1. A sensible forecasting approach for this demand pattern
2. The base forecast with the assumptions behind it
3. How to build in seasonality and known events
4. The uncertainty range and how to plan for it (safety stock,
   flexibility)
5. How to track forecast accuracy and improve it

Emphasise that the plan is a decision input, not a promise — build for
being wrong. Flag where real data is needed.