The Capacity Decision Analyzer

Help me decide whether and when to add capacity.

The business/operation: [DESCRIBE]
Current capacity and utilisation: [DESCRIBE]
Demand outlook: [DESCRIBE, WITH UNCERTAINTY]
Cost and lead time to add capacity: [DESCRIBE]

Analyse:
1. The cost of being short (lost sales, service failures) vs the cost of
   excess (idle assets)
2. The lead-time problem — deciding before demand is certain
3. Adding capacity in steps vs one large block
4. The demand level that justifies the investment (tie to the NPV logic)
5. The option value of waiting for more information

Frame it as an asymmetric bet under uncertainty, and tell me which error
is more costly here.