The Real Options Analyzer

Analyse the option value in this decision — the value of flexibility I'd
otherwise ignore.

The decision: [DESCRIBE — E.G. A STAGED INVESTMENT, A PILOT, A LICENCE
WITH EXPANSION RIGHTS]
The uncertainty: [WHAT WE'LL LEARN OVER TIME]

Provide:
1. The options embedded in this decision (to defer, expand, abandon,
   switch)
2. Why a simple NPV understates the value when I can adapt as I learn
3. How the flexibility changes the decision (e.g. invest small now to
   keep the option open)
4. A rough sense of what the option to wait or expand is worth
5. How to structure the decision to preserve valuable flexibility

Bring the value of flexibility under uncertainty into the open — standard
NPV assumes a now-or-never, all-or-nothing bet, which is often wrong.