Scenario Planning

Help me think through future scenarios for [situation]:

CURRENT STATE:
[Where things stand now]

KEY UNCERTAINTIES:
[What could go different ways]

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT:
For 3-4 distinct scenarios:
1. Name and describe the scenario
2. What chain of events leads here?
3. What are the early indicators this scenario is emerging?
4. What would I need to do differently in each scenario?
5. How likely do you assess this scenario?

SYNTHESIS:
- What's robust across all scenarios?
- What actions are "no regret" moves?
- What should I watch for as leading indicators?