Calibrated Confidence

Answer this question with calibrated confidence:

QUESTION: [Your question]

RESPONSE FORMAT:
1. Your answer
2. Confidence level: [percentage or high/medium/low]
3. Confidence justification: Why this level? What would change it?
4. Key uncertainties: What don't you know that matters?
5. Falsifiability: What evidence would make you change your answer?
6. Caveat clarity: Distinguish between "I don't know" and "this is unknowable"

If you're uncertain, say so clearly. If you're guessing, label it as a guess. If you're confident, explain why.