Pre-Mortem Analysis

Before I commit to this decision/plan, conduct a pre-mortem:

DECISION/PLAN:
[Describe what you're considering]

PRE-MORTEM PROCESS:
1. Assume it's 12 months from now and this has FAILED spectacularly
2. List the top 10 reasons why it failed
3. For each failure mode:
   - How likely is this? (probability)
   - How severe would it be? (impact)
   - What would the early warning signs be?
   - How could we prevent or mitigate it?
4. Based on this analysis, what changes would you recommend?
5. What's the single biggest risk I should address before proceeding?